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Will the new Little Mermaid movie make a splash? We have projections

Will the new Little Mermaid movie make a splash? We have projections


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The new live-action Little Mermaid’s release date is approaching, and the earnings projections are rolling in! How will it fare in the sea of moviegoers?

Live Action Little Mermaid

Become part of Ariel's world with this new Little Mermaid full-length movie trailer
Credit: Disney

Unless you actually live under the sea (or under a rock), you have probably heard by now that Disney has created a live-action version of The Little Mermaid. Disney’s The Little Mermaid (1989), which recently earned a place in the National Film Registry, is the next classic animated film in line to see its live-action remake’s theatrical release come to fruition. Its release date is set for May 26, 2023. 

The movie’s cast includes stars like Halle Bailey (Ariel), Melissa McCarthy (Ursula)Daveed Diggs (Sebastian), and Jonah Hauer-King (Prince Eric.) And, we have more casting news! We also know who will be playing Ariel’s sisters!

Don’t forget that the film’s release also means that there will be a live-action character meet in the parks! You can read about it here.

Will the movie do well?

Credit: Target

As is the case with all live-action reboots, The Little Mermaid reboot will diverge from the animated version of the story. The internet has been abuzz with changes surrounding Prince Eric’s characterization, which you can read about here. There has also been some discussion surrounding the edits to some popular Little Mermaid Song Lyrics.

Reactions have also been divisive to the theatrical trailer on YouTube. According to Forbes, it amassed over 1 million dislikes. Of course, it also received more than 1 million likes. However, all press tends to be good press, so this is not truly indicative of performance.

Earnings Projections

Credit: Disney

So will it make a splash, or will it be more of a belly-flop at the box offices during its opening weekend? The film does have the benefit of having a holiday weekend for an opener.

As it stands, according to Deadline, the film is projected to earn $110 million over the course of Memorial Day weekend. If that projection comes to fruition, it will launch the film into one of the top 8 earners among movies that opened on Memorial Day Weekend. Paramount pic Top Gun: Maverick set a record for Memorial Day weekend with an opening weekend haul of $160.5M.

Credit: KtP writer Donna

So far, the prize for Disney’s top opening for a Memorial Day weekend belongs to Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End with $153M. The top Memorial Day Weekend live-action remake so far has been Aladdin, which debuted earning $116.8M. The all-time top opening for a Disney live-action remake of an animated classic belongs to The Lion King which earned $191.8M. The Little Mermaid is not expected to top either number during its opening.

We will know soon enough how it performs. Will it meet projections? Will it exceed them and swim with the big fish? Or will it do the opposite? Follow along with us for opening weekend news.

Do you know someone who likes to make projections? Be sure to share this news. Do you have predictions for how the film will do? Feel free to share in the comments.

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