Home Disney News Analysts Predict Percentages for Disney Park Capacity

Analysts Predict Percentages for Disney Park Capacity

Analysts Predict Percentages for Disney Park Capacity

We are all still processing the information this week as Walt Disney World shared reopening dates and procedures. The Disney Company has been somewhat vague as to how many guests may be able to enter the magical gates in the beginning and how the limited capacity may increase in the future. We have an early glimpse of the limited capacity percentages that we may be seeing as Walt Disney World reopens.


We have shared Walt Disney World will have phased reopenings with Magic Kingdom and Animal Kingdom on July 11, 2020 and Epcot and Hollywood Studios on July 15, 2020. Read more about these reopening dates HERE.

According to Deadline, MoffetNathanson analyst, Michael Nathonson, recently downgraded their Disney shares due to the pandemic.

This is not an official percentage statement from Disney, but the MoffetNathanson firm assumes that the Walt Disney World Parks will reopen at 25% their normal guest capacity for the remainder of 2020. They are basing this percentage on the current guest capacity percentages of the Disneyland Shanghai Park.

Orange County Mayor Doesn't Think Disney Will Reopen Until June or Later

Nathonson also projects that in 2021, the Walt Disney World guest capacity will be set at 50% and may increase to 75% in 2022. “Until you have a vaccine, you’re going to have the parks run very cautiously” Micheal Nathonson reasoned.

From the Walt Disney RR station looking down Main Street

At this time the Disney Company has been very vague in their wording of how many guests will be allowed to enter the parks once they reopen and that a reservation system will be in place to limit guest capacity.

We are hoping that things may return back to “normal” sooner than what the MoffetNathonson firm presents, but at this time there are still so many unknowns.

Disney CEO Bob Chapek Comments on Reopening Plans

What do you think of these possible percentages to limit guest capacity? Will you and your family try to return to the Disney Parks as they reopen this summer? Share your thoughts on our Facebook page.


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  1. Whit, I respect your opinion, but can I ask you why you’re against vaccine cards?

    You can’t drive a car without proof that you’ve passed mandated safety tests, so I’m wondering what the difference here is. Obviously, you feel so strongly about it that you’d never return to Disney, so — why?

  2. Vaccine cards? NO thank you. If that is a future requirement to go to Disney World, my family and I would never return.

    And for what its worth, there is no guarantee that a vaccine for Covid-19 is even possible or feasible.

  3. Wanda, we “liberals” would be all on board for sensible proof-of-vaccination cards, like it’s done in many other countries (and Shanghai Disneyland), in order to further the health of the population. There’s actually a carve-out in the HIPAA regulations for such a thing. However, there is an awfully large contingent in this country that will refuse the vaccine because something-something-microchips-tracking-conspiracy and would revolt at the idea, so — until there’s a root change in this country — it probably won’t happen, which is a shame.

    I think market pressures will result in Disney allowing going to full capacity sometime in 2021 — but the crowds may simply not show up. Look at Disney Springs and Citywalk; they’re open for business IF people go there, but they’re not; most people are justifiably averse to the idea right now.

  4. No? will wait when/if special events – character pics, fireworks and parades resume. Hoping resorts will reopen soon.
    What a nightmare for the happiest place on Earth!

  5. Disney says crowds will increase when vaccination is available. My family will be vaccinated but less than half the country gets influenza vaccination each year. What about the HIPAA law?
    How will Disney require people to be vaccinated for covid 19 and show proof they have been vaccinated when they arrive at the resorts, parks, restaurants? Disney is too liberal to require proof.

  6. I think MIchael Nathonson is out of his mind. No way Disney can continue to operate at this reduced capacity. They would probably loose less money if they stayed closed!

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